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『普通』主题: 3000点因成交量萎缩 短期很难重返

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12月11日(周四)大盘低开走高,守住了2900点,最后收缩量假阳线。两小板比主板强势,收真阳线,股指期货当月合约升水24个点。盘面上,板块和个股涨多跌少,机场、钢铁和海洋经济等板块涨幅居前,券商、保险和石油等权重股板块继续跌幅居前。82只个股涨停,3只个股跌停,225只股票涨幅超过5%,个股活跃。全天两市成交7981.3亿元,比上一个交易日的8611亿元减少了629.7亿元,量能萎缩了7.3%。

消息面上,证监会连泼两盆水,为股市降温。一是提前到11日就下发12只新股批文。二是预告下周将查券商的两融业务。对市场已不构成大的冲击。而后一项,压力是明显存在。

本周二大盘暴跌,我分析是主力在凶悍洗盘,周三到10日线附近就会止跌,然后就是重新缓慢拉升2-3天。如果这段时间成交量跟不上,出现量价背离,那么就会在下周再出现比较大的调整,“12月中旬”这个时间点也是我之前一直提示的,主要的依据还是IPO和股指期货交割日,还有就是年底机构结账,银行资金回笼,到12月20日会重拾升势,这才是A股真正的规律。

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